<p>Stumbled upon an interesting study: the folks at METR proposed a new metric for AI progress, similar to the famous Moore's Law (which states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles approximately every two years).</p>
<p>It turns out that over the past 6 years, the length of tasks that AI can perform independently (with a 50% success rate) doubles every 7 months. Despite the clarification about '50% success', it sounds impressive.</p>
<p>If the trend continues, within the next 5 years, AI will be able to independently handle a significant portion of tasks that currently take humans days or weeks.</p>
<p>The authors themselves note that AI is already almost perfect at tasks up to 4 minutes of human time, but tasks over 4 hours are still challenging (less than 10% success).</p>
<p>At this rate of progress, by the end of the decade, we can expect systems that will autonomously execute projects lasting a month or more. The implications of this are hard to overstate: from fully automated work to serious risks associated with such autonomy.</p>
<p>Details and methodology here: <a href="https://metr.org/research/measuring-ai-ability">https://metr.org/research/measuring-ai-ability</a><br />Paper: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499">https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499</a><br />Github: <a href="https://github.com/METR/eval-analysis-public">https://github.com/METR/eval-analysis-public</a></p>;
#ai #automation #metr #agi
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