<p>On one hand, we can be glad that in the USA, almost 70% have been vaccinated, everything is open, functioning, and generally recovering.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there’s not much to be happy about, and here’s why:</p>
<p>There are 3 scenarios:</p>
<ol>
<li>Everyone is unvaccinated - the emergence of a new virus mutation doesn’t fundamentally change anything (if mortality doesn’t change), as different versions of the virus compete with each other, and it’s not that important which version you’re infected with.</li>
<li>Everyone is vaccinated - since the virus has a hard time attaching to the population, the chances of getting a good mutation are minimal, and the speed of spread is negligibly small, as this is a game of statistics and large numbers, which are absent in the second scenario.</li>
<li>Half are vaccinated, and half are not. Essentially, the second half acts as a laboratory for inventing a new version of the virus that breaks through the protection of the first. Given the presence of countries with rampant virus spread, we are effectively in the third scenario 🤷♂️, and unfortunately, when conscious countries will be hit is purely a matter of time.</li>
</ol>
· Essay · 1 min
Vaccination Scenarios and Virus Mutation
In the USA, almost 70% are vaccinated, but that’s not a reason to celebrate. Let’s consider three scenarios.